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Understanding the present, preparing for the future

“A scenario provides an internally consistent view of what the future might turn out to be – not a forecast, but one possible future outcome.” (Professor Michael Porter)

“What matters is not simply what we know, but how we react to what we do not know.” (Jeremy Kourdi)

When establishing a strategic direction and a set of priorities that will guide decision-makers, few techniques are as powerful as scenario planning. Scenarios are perspectives on potential events and their consequences, providing a context in which managers can make decisions. By contemplating a range of possible futures, decisions are better informed, and a strategy based on this deeper insight is more likely to succeed.

Scenarios help managers tackle risk, uncertainty and complexity. Scenario planning enables organisations to rehearse the future, to walk the battlefield before battle commences so that they are better prepared. Their value lies not in a prediction of the future, but in their ability to recognise and understand future developments, enabling managers to influence events.

This practical toolkit explains how to use scenario planning to strengthen and secure your business.

Length: 7 pages

Contents

The Benefits

Action Checklist: Scenario Planning
• Planning and structuring the scenario process
• Exploring the scenario context
• Developing the scenarios
• Analysing the scenarios
• Using the scenarios

Avoiding Problems – this includes avoiding potential pitfalls such as: misunderstanding what it is that the scenarios are intended to achieve; failing to create or explore scenarios that are either viable or sufficiently imaginative; failing to adopt a rigorous, intelligent and informed approach; ignoring, downgrading or simply failing to act on the scenarios; failing to communicate the scenario, and misunderstanding the link between short-term and long-term success and prosperity.

Key Questions

Dos and Don’ts

Things You Can Do
• Ask team members for their ‘histories of the future’
• Hold workshops off-site to allow reflection
• Communicate scenarios graphically
• Keep informed and up-to-date

Further Action

Further Information